Public Health Modelling Group Studies

Our models

  • Integrated Transport and Health Impact Modelling Tool (ITHIM). ITHIM is being used in studies and by practitioners to estimate the health impact of transport scenarios, compare the impact of travel patterns in different places, and model the impact of interventions. The methods developed for ITHIM are now also being applied to developing models for diet and for non-travel related physical activity. ITHIM 3 is currently being developed in R.
  • Propensity to Cycle Tool: A project funded by the Department for Transport to build a dynamic national policy tool with the ability to present data at the Local Authority level on the potential for increasing cycling across England.
  • Impacts of Cycling Tool: A microsimulation model and tool to compare travel surveys and estimate across multiple outcomes the effects of increasing the take up of cycling amongst different population groups. Funded by the Department for Transport as part of the Propensity to Cycle Tool Project.
  • Microsimulation model of the Health Checks Programme. In a recent study funded by Public Health England with the collaboration of the MRC BioStatistics Unit we created a longitudinal microsimulation to assess how changes to the ‘Health Checks’ programme might affect health impacts.

Our research studies

  • Propensity to Cycle Tool Project: A project funded by the Department for Transport to build a dynamic national policy tool with the ability to present data at the Local Authority level on the potential for increasing cycling across England. This study also funds the Impacts of Cycling Tool (ICT) and related reserach.
  • Towards an Integrated Global Transport and Health Assessment Tool (TIGTHAT): In this project we lay the scientific foundations of a health impact assessment tool that will be readily applied to a wide variety of urban settings in Low or Middle Income Countries to estimate health impacts of transport choices. Funded by an MRC Global Challenges Foundation Award.
  • Research into valuing health impacts in Transport Appraisal: A project funded by the Department for Transport to provide a new approach to estimating the health benefits of increases in walking and cycling to incorporated within WebTAG.


  • World Health Organization Health Economic Assessment Tool (HEAT) for walking and cycling.
  • Center for Transportation, Environment, and Community Health. Preserving the Environment, US Department of Transport. Cornell University- Lead, Consortium Members: University of California, Davis, University of South Florida, University of Texas at El Paso.
  • Scalable behavioural weight management programme for the prevention and treatment of type 2 diabetes, NIHR Programme Grant. Led by Prof S Griffin S. & Dr Amy Ahern.
  • Is 20 plenty for health? Evaluation of the 20mph speed limit networks in Edinburgh and Belfast on a range of public health outcomes, NIHR Project Grant. Led by Dr Ruth Jepson.
  • Characterising patterns and changes in physical activity in older people and their determinants and consequences. In this project, led by Professor Simon Griffin, the CEDAR modelling group is modelling the impact of changes to physical activity on health and well-being outcomes amongst older people.
  • Development and evaluation of system dynamics methods to engage with policy makers on the prevention and control of diabetes in a middle income region. Led by Professor Nigel Unwin.

Other studies

  • Modelling diet and transport: This small project is investigating the cost of healthy and environmentally sustainable travel patterns and diets and investigate how these vary by income and how changes in prices might affect health, environmental and equity outcomes. For more information contact: Dr Marko Tainio.
  • Physical Activity and Air Pollution trade-offs in urban environments: Modelling how the benefits from physical activity and harms from increased air pollution inhalation vary depending on amount of time spent walking & cycling and air pollution concentrations in different cities. For more information contact: Dr Marko Tainio.
  • Dose response meta-analyses of physical activity and sedentary time and health outcomes: in collaboration with the MRC Epidemiology Unit Physical Activity Epidemiology Group we are leading a series of reviews quantifying the dose response relationship between.

Older Studies

  • Changing Commutes? In this study an agent-based model of cycle commuting is being developed. This ESRC funded project is using existing qualitative and quantitative datasets explore the potential for transitions towards more sustainable commuting. The project is looking at how focus on social influence, social values and social learning, and how these shape commuting practices over time in a heterogeneous population. Visit the project website. Co-investigators Dr Rachel Aldred & Dr Zaid Chalabi
  • Modelling on the Move – Towards Transport System Transitions: This series of events bringing together researchers and practitioners to discuss innovative ways of responding to pressing policy problems in transport.